Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.298201 2.443685 2.597798 2.773921 2.970510 3.184233 3.435574
2025-08-03 2.075441 2.272929 2.492808 2.758235 3.073383 3.440126 3.906125
2025-08-10 1.929990 2.155014 2.414023 2.738765 3.141858 3.635561 4.302521
2025-08-17 1.811684 2.052254 2.336165 2.702684 3.173961 3.775921 4.632911
2025-08-24 1.715819 1.966381 2.268172 2.667353 3.196261 3.897121 4.943569
2025-08-31 1.650775 1.912170 2.233015 2.667240 3.259462 4.073274 5.349093
2025-09-07 1.600972 1.872760 2.212241 2.681697 3.339973 4.277493 5.822151
2025-09-14 1.534515 1.807996 2.154030 2.640339 3.336818 4.356800 6.105929
2025-09-21 1.473186 1.746519 2.096248 2.594736 3.322162 4.414632 6.358946
2025-09-28 1.416776 1.688740 2.040137 2.547299 3.299912 4.456441 6.587451
2025-10-05 1.398566 1.680047 2.048926 2.591135 3.416069 4.728565 7.281764
2025-10-12 1.380797 1.670788 2.055905 2.631913 3.529672 5.008120 8.049509
2025-10-19 1.364528 1.663446 2.065902 2.678888 3.659121 5.335212 9.009474
2025-10-26 1.329479 1.629039 2.036202 2.664284 3.687113 5.484383 9.617801
2025-11-02 1.295751 1.595082 2.005451 2.645891 3.706605 5.619069 10.228170
2025-11-09 1.259532 1.556342 1.966122 2.611786 3.696257 5.694525 10.710620
2025-11-16 1.225737 1.519863 1.928591 2.578375 3.684288 5.764883 11.201150
2025-11-23 1.203483 1.498860 1.912737 2.578269 3.730516 5.958359 12.105013
2025-11-30 1.186338 1.484454 1.905878 2.591941 3.802097 6.214171 13.302510
2025-12-07 1.155819 1.449991 1.867870 2.552818 3.773684 6.249581 13.800945
2025-12-14 1.125710 1.415336 1.828477 2.509655 3.734849 6.257547 14.213169
2025-12-21 1.096517 1.381294 1.789008 2.464728 3.689893 6.247023 14.561464
2025-12-28 1.090952 1.381285 1.800995 2.506246 3.812821 6.643037 16.682209